← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sun, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 70% | 50% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 27% | 4.90 | value: +33% |
| Kortrijk win | 10% | 23% | 9.35 | value: +112% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gent | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 567.00 | 567.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1736.40 | 1603.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.54 | -23.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| league points | 40.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.11 | 1.32 |
| state index | 0.91 | -0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |