← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sat, Dec 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 54% | 60% | 1.81 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.89 | fair |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 21% | 17% | 4.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charleroi | Oud-Heverlee Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 924.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1603.90 | 1452.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.35 | -13.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 0.83 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |