← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Fri, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 53% | 51% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.92 | fair |
| Westerlo win | 23% | 25% | 4.32 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Westerlo | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 984.00 | 224.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1417.77 | 1594.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.40 | -20.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 12.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| state index | -1.53 | -0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |