← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sat, Dec 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 37% | 33% | 2.61 | fair |
| Mouscron-Peruwelz win | 34% | 41% | 2.91 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mouscron-Peruwelz | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 583.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1487.84 | 1530.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.12 | -6.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.06 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |