← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sat, Nov 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 40% | 37% | 2.45 | fair |
| Genk win | 33% | 34% | 2.96 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.59 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genk | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 211.00 | 545.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1599.51 | 1727.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -54.94 | -9.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| league points | 23.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 2.06 |
| state index | -0.27 | 1.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |