← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 40% | 21% | 2.43 | fair |
| Club Brugge win | 33% | 54% | 2.99 | value: +61% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Brugge | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 14.00 | 318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1608.36 | 1557.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.08 | 40.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 77.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.31 |
| state index | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |