← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 79% | 73% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 18% | 6.89 | value: +21% |
| Lierse win | 7% | 9% | 13.32 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gent | Lierse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 279.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1685.40 | 1428.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.66 | 9.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 51.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 0.75 |
| state index | 1.01 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |