← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 57% | 51% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.10 | value: +9% |
| Waregem win | 20% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genk | Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 218.00 | 1192.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1635.28 | 1574.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.06 | -19.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 46.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.11 |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |