← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waregem win | 46% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +9% |
| Mechelen win | 27% | 22% | 3.55 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waregem | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1185.00 | 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1588.19 | 1531.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.98 | 5.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 31.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.19 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |