← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sun, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 58% | 56% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.12 | value: +3% |
| Lierse win | 18% | 19% | 5.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | Lierse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 297.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1525.13 | 1444.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.26 | 21.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 29.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 0.81 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |