← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sat, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 72% | 68% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.44 | fair |
| Westerlo win | 10% | 13% | 9.97 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gent | Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 251.00 | 677.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1664.89 | 1496.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.31 | 36.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 41.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.25 |
| state index | 0.72 | 0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |