← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sun, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard win | 55% | 62% | 1.78 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.01 | fair |
| Lierse win | 21% | 16% | 4.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lierse | Standard |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 945.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1418.58 | 1705.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.94 | 10.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 15.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.61 |
| state index | -1.71 | 0.93 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |