← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sat, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 45% | 38% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.48 | fair |
| Genk win | 27% | 35% | 3.67 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charleroi | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 609.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1597.69 | 1636.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.15 | 10.15 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 35.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.64 |
| state index | 0.75 | 0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |