← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sun, Jan 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard win | 49% | 57% | 1.99 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.73 | fair |
| Westerlo win | 25% | 21% | 3.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Westerlo | Standard |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 657.00 | 931.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| elo | 1455.02 | 1695.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.73 | -12.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 23.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 23.00 | 22.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.57 |
| state index | -0.95 | 0.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |