← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sun, Jan 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokeren win | 50% | 44% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.54 | fair |
| Genk win | 23% | 28% | 4.32 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lokeren | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1723.00 | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| elo | 1637.20 | 1627.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.58 | 23.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 29.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 22.00 | 28.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.60 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |