← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Fri, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 57% | 45% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.88 | fair |
| Mouscron-Peruwelz win | 18% | 30% | 5.35 | value: +59% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | Mouscron-Peruwelz |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 239.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1512.55 | 1513.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.11 | 4.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 22.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.15 |
| state index | -0.82 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |