← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sat, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 42% | 32% | 2.35 | fair |
| Westerlo win | 31% | 44% | 3.17 | value: +39% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Westerlo | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 628.00 | 233.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1460.11 | 1512.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.85 | -21.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.11 |
| state index | -1.02 | -0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |