← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sat, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waregem win | 37% | 36% | 2.65 | fair |
| Mouscron-Peruwelz win | 35% | 39% | 2.77 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mouscron-Peruwelz | Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1522.87 | 1615.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.08 | 10.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| league points | 23.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.16 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |