← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sat, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 55% | 55% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.01 | fair |
| Lierse win | 21% | 19% | 4.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charleroi | Lierse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 567.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1581.77 | 1446.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 54.92 | -15.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 28.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 0.74 |
| state index | 0.85 | -0.94 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |