← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sun, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge win | 36% | 18% | 2.67 | fair |
| Standard win | 35% | 59% | 2.78 | value: +64% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Standard | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 896.00 | 2814.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1694.34 | 1614.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.70 | 12.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 27.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.43 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |