← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sat, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 37% | 33% | 2.64 | fair |
| Waasland-Beveren win | 34% | 36% | 2.88 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.34 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waasland-Beveren | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 560.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1511.96 | 1566.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.01 | 39.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 20.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.39 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |