← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sun, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 58% | 44% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.92 | value: +11% |
| Genk win | 18% | 28% | 5.56 | value: +56% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gent | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 189.00 | 128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1649.09 | 1626.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.70 | 2.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 29.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.65 |
| state index | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |