← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sun, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard win | 39% | 44% | 2.50 | value: +11% |
| Charleroi win | 32% | 28% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charleroi | Standard |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 554.00 | 889.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1575.09 | 1685.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.79 | -6.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 25.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.41 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |