← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 39% | 25% | 2.51 | fair |
| Westerlo win | 33% | 52% | 2.96 | value: +53% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Westerlo | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 607.00 | 546.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1478.76 | 1565.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.75 | 42.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 21.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.79 | 0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |