← Jupiler Pro League 2014-15 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waasland-Beveren win | 43% | 37% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.29 | fair |
| Mouscron-Peruwelz win | 27% | 34% | 3.60 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waasland-Beveren | Mouscron-Peruwelz |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1492.17 | 1516.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.24 | -7.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| league points | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |