← Jupiler Pro League 2013-14 · Sat, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 37% | 31% | 2.63 | fair |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 34% | 44% | 2.83 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1491.47 | 1535.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.27 | 13.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 22.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.08 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |