← Jupiler Pro League 2013-14 · Sat, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bergen win | 45% | 56% | 2.15 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.56 | fair |
| Lierse win | 27% | 19% | 3.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bergen | Lierse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1453.01 | 1487.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.57 | 49.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 13.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 1.13 |
| state index | -0.48 | 0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |