← Jupiler Pro League 2013-14 · Sat, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 37% | 30% | 2.66 | fair |
| Genk win | 33% | 46% | 2.97 | value: +36% |
| Draw | 30% | 24% | 3.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 31.00 | 886.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1549.97 | 1618.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.42 | -68.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 26.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.52 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.85 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |