← Jupiler Pro League 2013-14 · Sat, Jan 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge win | 50% | 48% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.62 | fair |
| Lierse win | 23% | 25% | 4.17 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lierse | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2484.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1445.15 | 1577.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.10 | -26.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 20.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 23.00 | 0.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.61 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |