← Jupiler Pro League 2013-14 · Thu, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 40% | 41% | 2.46 | fair |
| Lierse win | 32% | 30% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lierse | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1335.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1424.94 | 1539.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.70 | -14.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.97 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |