← Jupiler Pro League 2013-14 · Sat, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waregem win | 50% | 48% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.67 | fair |
| Bergen win | 24% | 27% | 4.11 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bergen | Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 737.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1457.14 | 1720.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.36 | 10.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 6.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.35 | 2.12 |
| state index | -0.42 | 0.89 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |