← Jupiler Pro League 2013-14 · Sat, Nov 30, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokeren win | 48% | 46% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.65 | fair |
| Bergen win | 26% | 30% | 3.77 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bergen | Lokeren |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1443.22 | 1647.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.63 | -12.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 3.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.19 | 1.63 |
| state index | -1.54 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |