← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard win | 55% | 53% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.91 | fair |
| Lokeren win | 20% | 22% | 4.82 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Standard | Lokeren |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 258.00 | 1050.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1685.10 | 1655.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.50 | -20.96 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.81 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| league points | 50.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.66 |
| state index | 0.85 | 0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |