← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germinal win | 43% | 30% | 2.27 | fair |
| Club Brugge win | 30% | 44% | 3.27 | value: +44% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Germinal | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2176.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1406.35 | 1554.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.57 | 4.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| league points | 20.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.13 |
| state index | -1.60 | -0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |