← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge win | 74% | 66% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 22% | 6.10 | value: +34% |
| Lierse win | 10% | 12% | 9.50 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Brugge | Lierse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2176.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1543.19 | 1465.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.66 | 12.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 59.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.90 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |