← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 48% | 38% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.49 | value: +13% |
| Waasland-Beveren win | 24% | 29% | 3.97 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charleroi | Waasland-Beveren |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 380.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1458.65 | 1497.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.41 | -13.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 31.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |