← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waasland-Beveren win | 41% | 42% | 2.37 | fair |
| Germinal win | 32% | 28% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.55 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waasland-Beveren | Germinal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1491.29 | 1412.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.54 | -25.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| league points | 27.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 0.71 |
| state index | -0.37 | -1.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |