← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lierse win | 42% | 24% | 2.33 | fair |
| Kortrijk win | 30% | 44% | 3.27 | value: +43% |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.38 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lierse | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1012.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1453.59 | 1570.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.90 | -14.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 23.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.36 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |