← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard win | 57% | 48% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.05 | fair |
| Genk win | 19% | 27% | 5.09 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Standard | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 238.00 | 544.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1672.64 | 1685.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.47 | 21.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| league points | 46.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.78 |
| state index | 0.72 | 1.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |