← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 59% | 50% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.30 | value: +8% |
| Club Brugge win | 18% | 25% | 5.45 | value: +34% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gent | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 53.00 | 2155.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| elo | 1588.63 | 1549.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.62 | -18.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 30.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.10 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.67 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |