← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Wed, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge win | 38% | 47% | 2.59 | value: +22% |
| Charleroi win | 34% | 25% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charleroi | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 356.00 | 2152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| elo | 1446.28 | 1560.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.53 | -17.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 27.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.12 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |