← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 47% | 59% | 2.06 | value: +21% |
| Germinal win | 27% | 19% | 3.67 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Germinal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1506.93 | 1426.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.37 | -27.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 31.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.73 |
| state index | -0.72 | -1.56 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |