← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 37% | 40% | 2.67 | value: +7% |
| Lierse win | 34% | 30% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lierse | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1022.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1448.03 | 1585.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.40 | 35.64 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 20.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.46 |
| state index | -1.02 | 0.69 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |