← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 51% | 40% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.81 | fair |
| Club Brugge win | 24% | 33% | 4.13 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1015.00 | 2141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1572.36 | 1577.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.71 | -27.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 35.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.17 |
| state index | 0.65 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |