← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 40% | 41% | 2.44 | fair |
| Lierse win | 31% | 28% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.34 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charleroi | Lierse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 345.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1439.25 | 1456.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.36 | -0.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 24.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.98 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |