← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokeren win | 40% | 49% | 2.44 | value: +18% |
| Lierse win | 31% | 24% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lierse | Lokeren |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1008.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1452.42 | 1676.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.77 | 23.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| league points | 19.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.79 |
| state index | -0.78 | 1.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |