← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 66% | 64% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
| Germinal win | 12% | 15% | 7.90 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gent | Germinal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 32.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1575.13 | 1438.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.19 | -39.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 24.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.79 |
| state index | -0.71 | -1.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |