← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waregem win | 60% | 62% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.45 | value: +10% |
| Lierse win | 18% | 13% | 5.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waregem | Lierse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 422.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1636.91 | 1458.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.66 | -2.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 44.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.83 |
| state index | 0.89 | -0.84 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |