← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lierse win | 47% | 39% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.54 | value: +11% |
| Waasland-Beveren win | 25% | 30% | 3.83 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lierse | Waasland-Beveren |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| elo | 1459.12 | 1497.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.07 | 32.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 18.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 23.00 | 24.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.79 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |