← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Thu, Dec 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard win | 78% | 65% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 21% | 6.37 | value: +35% |
| Germinal win | 7% | 14% | 14.34 | value: +103% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Standard | Germinal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 179.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1657.89 | 1453.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.55 | -46.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 35.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.86 |
| state index | 1.08 | -1.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |